Up for the Third Consecutive Quarter; Highest Level in Five Years
Zonda’s New Home Lot Supply Index (LSI) for 1Q25 showed lot supply loosened, both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter across the United States, notching the third consecutive increase from previous quarters.
The index is a residential real estate indicator based on the number of single-family vacant developed lots and the rate at which those lots are absorbed via housing starts.
- The New Home LSI came in at 64.3 for 1Q25, representing a 12.1% increase from 1Q24. The 1Q25 data shows a “significantly undersupplied” market nationally. The market has been “significantly undersupplied” since 2017.
- On a quarter-over-quarter basis, supply increased by 5.7% from 4Q24.
- The LSI counts the total vacant developed lot supply and adjusts for overall starts activity.
“Today’s housing market is shaped by the intersection of politics, economics, affordability, and consumer sentiment,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda and NewHomeSource. “The resulting impact is a choppy market, and mixed messages on the lot supply front. Zonda’s LSI in the first quarter came in at the highest level in five years thanks to slower housing starts and more cautious consumers but remained significantly undersupplied.”
Total upcoming lots (delivery over the next 12-18 months) for 1Q25 increased 4.7% year-over-year, and were up 6.5% from last quarter. Additionally, they were up 26.3% compared to the same quarter in 2019.
“There has been a lot of money invested in land and lot development in recent years, and we are seeing the fruit of that labor show up in total upcoming lots,” said Wolf. “The big question now is how aggressive builders will be in the shifting market with housing starts, new community openings, and their land acquisition plans.”
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