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Prime Day Playbook: Avoiding Attribution Traps and Driving Real Growth

Prime Day Playbook: Avoiding Attribution Traps and Driving Real Growth

Discover expert commentary from industry leaders on Prime Day 2025, revealing how marketers can avoid attribution traps, boost ROI, and drive meaningful growth through smarter strategies and advanced tech.

Maor Sadra, CEO & co-founder, INCRMNTAL

Prime Day is a sales frenzy, but it’s also a trap for lazy measurement. Just because revenue spikes doesn’t mean your ads deserve the credit.

At INCRMNTAL, we’ve analysed more than $2 billion in ad spend, including Prime Day campaigns across industries like gaming, retail, and finance. What we consistently find is this: Prime Day generates huge sales spikes, but much of that revenue isn’t truly incremental. In many cases, brands see a lower return on ad spend during Prime Day than they do during regular seasonal activity. Why? Because consumers are already primed to purchase, whether or not your campaigns run.

This year, brands are investing across a myriad of channels and platforms including CTV, linear TV, DOOH, retail media, and social, but as spend spreads, so does the risk of misattribution. Without always-on incrementality measurement, many marketers are unknowingly over-crediting platforms that simply benefit from timing.

Advertising on Prime Day is expensive. Amazon, in particular, sees a significant portion of merchant sales flow straight back into its own pockets through ad spend. If marketers don’t understand what’s truly driving conversions, they risk mistaking correlation for causation, and consequently wasting serious budget.

Now more than ever, accurate, privacy-safe measurement is essential to cutting through the noise and making every dollar count.

Bryan Hernandez, Director of Client Partners, RTB House

“Prime Day Is a Marathon, Not a Sprint

“Whether it’s Prime Day or any other big shopping moment, one thing is certain: today’s shoppers are more intentional. They search early, compare, and wait to strike when the price is right.

“If you’re only activating ads during the promo window, you’re already behind. Brands that show up early,  build awareness and capture intent, are the ones driving results when it matters most.

“And here’s the bigger picture: we observe that up to 61% of purchases come from products that the shopper hadn’t seen before. That’s not just a Prime Day trend but a universal truth: in-ad discovery drives growth.

“If growth comes from in-ad discovery, make sure you’re using tech that truly enables it. Savvy marketers are already leaning into Deep Learning, the next-gen engine for unlocking incremental growth. It goes beyond the obvious. It maps complex paths to purchase, identifies non-obvious converters, and dynamically surfaces products shoppers haven’t seen before, but are ready to buy. Pair that with shoppable, brand-forward creative, and you’re driving real product discovery that converts. That’s how you move from “good enough” to true performance in a busy buying period.

Discover the latest trends and insights—explore the Business Insights Journal for up-to-date strategies and industry breakthroughs!

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