The next five years will redefine corporate and investment banking (CIB) as non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) expand their footprint across trading, advisory, and lending. A new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Corporate and Investment Banking Report 2025: Positioning for Growth in Uncertain Times, projects that NBFIs will account for 20% of global CIB revenues and 30% of trading volumes by 2030.
These gains come at a time of broader structural shifts. While the total CIB wallet is expected to grow by as much as 35% by 2030, crossing the trillion-dollar threshold, traditional banks are under pressure from agile competitors, digital platforms, and rising geopolitical fragmentation. The report draws on proprietary modeling and industry benchmarks to map three future scenarios and provide a portfolio strategy for long-term resilience.
“NBFIs are no longer peripheral players—they are central to how capital is being formed, intermediated, and traded,” said Julian Hein, a managing director and partner at BCG and coauthor of the report. “If banks don’t modernize quickly, they’ll see their relevance and returns steadily eroded.”
AI and Trading Divisions Deliver Competitive Edge
BCG’s analysis shows that AI could free up to 25% to 40% corporate and investment banker capacity by 2030, with similar gains in operations. The firms moving fastest are shifting from isolated pilots to CEO-backed enterprise transformations anchored in four to six high-value initiatives.
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities plus equities trading are the biggest winners in tech-forward environments. These businesses benefit from AI-led automation and NBFI expansion. In contrast, corporate banking faces steep disintermediation unless institutions upgrade platforms and reorient coverage models.
Other key findings include:
- Boutique investment banks could capture 20% of investment banking revenues by 2030.
- Return-on-tangible-equity (RoTE) gap between leaders and laggards may widen to 8 percentage points, primarily via scale and AI-led efficiency
- Geopolitical fragmentation is redrawing regulatory regimes and capital markets infrastructure, favoring localized models
- Asia is gaining share as Europe struggles to maintain competitiveness
A Portfolio Approach to the Future
The report urges CIB leaders to take a portfolio approach to their strategy: focusing 50% of their efforts on maximizing potential in core businesses, 25% on scaling high RoTE adjacencies, and 25% on placing targeted bets on emerging domains. Top performers are building scalable delivery platforms, reallocating capital to fee-driven businesses, and pursuing infrastructure partnerships with fintechs and NBFIs.
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