LightBox, a leading provider of commercial real estate (CRE) data and technology, reported a rebound in its January 2025 LightBox CRE Activity Index, a key measure of transactional momentum in the market. The Index surged to 81.2, reflecting a strong increase from 56.8 in December 2024 and surpassing November’s 80.5. The January reading is slightly above the corresponding month of 2024 (76.2), which points to renewed investor confidence and early signs of market stabilization.
“The January rebound reflects growing optimism that market conditions are stabilizing,” said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. “Despite macroeconomic uncertainty and policy concerns, buyers and lenders are taking a more active approach as interest rates hold steady and new investment opportunities emerge.”
The LightBox CRE Activity Index tracks commercial property listings, environmental due diligence (Phase I ESA volume), and valuation activity—key functions that support CRE transactions and serve as a leading indicator of deal activity. The Index is normalized to account for variations in the number of business days per month, providing a consistent view of market trends.
According to report commentary, January began with optimism that stable interest rates and improving economic conditions would set the stage for renewed deal flow. That sentiment was tested mid-month as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly spiked to 4.8%, driven by uncertainty surrounding new administration policies on tariffs and immigration, as well as the disruptive DeepSeek AI announcement that raised questions about the future of AI investment and infrastructure.
Despite these disruptions, the report signals that transactional activity accelerated, with a notable increase in Phase I ESA volume, particularly in the industrial and multifamily sectors, indicating greater deal flow in these asset classes. Commercial property listings also rose following a seasonal dip, suggesting growing confidence among sellers and a potential narrowing of bid-ask spreads. At the same time, valuation activity picked up, a trend often seen as a precursor to increased financing and refinancing activity.
“January’s index reading is an encouraging sign that investor confidence is beginning to recover, but market dynamics remain highly nuanced,” said Clancy. “We continue to see pockets of opportunity emerging across different asset classes and markets, reinforcing the need for data-driven decision-making.”
With the LightBox CRE Activity Index showing its strongest increase in months, early indicators suggest 2025 could bring a more stable and active CRE market, according to the report commentary. However, the report highlights that sustained recovery will depend on macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, and sector-specific performance. Market participants will continue to assess pricing dynamics, transaction volumes, and capital availability to gauge the trajectory of deal activity in the months ahead.
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