Deterioration in the outlook for US consumers and in their spending intentions eased this month as modest gains emerged in key readings in the Bain & Company/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes. But ahead of the crucial US holiday spending season, today’s October CHI report suggests businesses remain cautious over consumer prospects as continuing concerns over the equity, housing, and job market weigh on earners across the income spectrum.
The headline Bain/Dynata CHI outlook gauge for consumer prospects across all US income groups rose in October, climbing to 100.1, up from September’s 98.8, arresting back-to-back declines in the prior two months that underlined the heightened fragility of US consumer sentiment.
Over the past several months, a darkening consumer mood was emphasised by multiple signals in the CHI data, with the outlook score for upper-income Americans (earning more than $100,000 per year) falling in both August and September, while that group’s spending intent gauge also fell last month. At the same time, among lower-income earners (earning below $50,000 per year), the CHI outlook score fell for four prior months in a row, dropping to 94.7 – a level not seen since early 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Spending intentions among the lower-income group also fell, with the CHI gauge of these dropping 1.8 points, to 97.2 in September.
This month, however, the worsening in many of these and other key CHI data series largely halted. In particular, today’s report shows the October CHI scores for both upper-income and lower-income earners’ outlook and spending intentions all ticked upward. Nevertheless, the Bain/Dynata findings caution that not every signal on the consumer is turning positive, despite the more positive indications in the October numbers.
While this month’s outlook score for lower-income Americans rose 1.5 points, this still remains at an adverse level of 96.2. This outlook reading, mired below the CHI indexes’ neutral level of 100, implies that the labor market, this group’s main income source, may still be softening.
Spending intentions for the lower-income group also climbed by 3.1 points, to just above the neutral level of 100. But the CHI report warns that this leveling off should not be read as a clear signal of strength but instead suggests lower-income households plan to hold spending steady but still do not plan any increase. Alongside, the CHI spending intent score for middle-income Americans (earning $50,000 to $100,000 per year) also remains below the neutral 100 level, at 98.2 for this month, indicating that a modest contraction in spending is likely among this group.
For upper-income households, the CHI outlook score rose this month, to a positive reading of 103.7, as equity markets, the key driver of prospects for better-off Americans, continued their march to fresh record highs. In parallel, the spending intentions gauge for the upper-income group also leveled off in October, after falling in both of the previous two months and, at 8.3 points above neutral, remains at robust levels.
But despite these positive October moves, the Bain/Dynata report cautions that upper-income consumer prospects still remain clouded by the August and September falls in the CHI gauge of these earners’ spending intentions, which came even as equity markets reached all-time highs, pointing to nervousness among the better-off over a pull-back in the markets.
“The rapid deterioration across all income groups in our data eased off this month. But we’re still far from getting an all-clear signal, with important indicators, such as our lower-income outlook and middle-income spending intent scores stuck in negative territory,” Brian Stobie, vice president in Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group, said.
“It’s not our role to predict corrections in the equity markets, only to note that corrections eventually occur. However, upper-income earners appear to be anticipating a correction – even getting ahead of one in recent months. For middle-income earners, their outlook remains dependent on a relatively frozen housing market, with their lackluster spending intentions indicating they are under pressure. The outlook for lower-income Americans, tied to their income, meanwhile tells a story of limited prospects in the job market, even if its deterioration may have halted. In recent reports we recommended that businesses start to include negative scenarios in their planning for the rest of this year. Despite signs of easing pressures in the CHI data this month, we advise continued caution, with attention to next month’s readings ahead of the crucial holiday spending season.”
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