XGS-PON Will Dominate the Rest of the Decade as 50 Gbps PON Gets Pushed Out
According to a newly published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, security, networks, and data center industries, the Broadband Access Equipment market is forecasted to grow at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent from 2025 to 2030, with total revenue peaking in 2028, driven by ongoing DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber expansion by cable and fiber ISPs. The forecast has decreased from July 2025 due to a slower ramp in the deployment of 50 Gbps PON technologies around the world.
“We reduced our forecasts for 50 Gbps PON deployments largely because of operators’ concerns around slowing average consumption, along with the need to maintain profit levels in increasingly competitive markets,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Fiber network expansions and subscriber growth will continue to be priorities, but so will the requirement that broadband services deliver value,” added Heynen.
Additional highlights from the Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year January 2026 Forecast Report:
- PON equipment revenue is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2025 to 2030, driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA, as well as FTTR (Fiber to the Room) deployments in China.
- Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment (Virtual CCAP, Remote PHY Devices, Remote MACPHY Devices, and Remote OLTs) is expected to grow to $1.2 B in 2030, as operators continue their DOCSIS 4.0 and early fiber deployments.
- Revenue for Fixed Wireless CPE is expected to peak in 2026 and 2027, dominated by shipments of 5G sub-6 GHz and a growing number of 5G millimeter wave units.
- Revenue for Wi-Fi 7 residential routers and broadband CPE with WLAN will reach $7.9 B by 2028, but will then begin to slow as Wi-Fi 8 units begin to ramp.
